Rule 5 Draft – Tampa Sports Talk

The MLB trade deadline is less than a week away, and teams are typically scurrying around to various Minor League affiliates of the organizations they want to make deals with. In regard to the upcoming trade deadline, teams may seek to flip prospects they’ll have to protect by adding to the 40-man roster instead of losing them for essentially nothing in December. What tends to happen is that teams are more likely to part with Minor League Players that they’re hesitant to protect in potential trade talks with other teams in exchange for a Major Leaguer that can help the team now. It’s typically a huge risk for both the team sending the prospect away and the one taking on the responsibility of developing that prospect into a quality talent that can one day help the Major League team.

With rumors swirling as always this time of year, the Yankees have a number of decisions to make when dealing with other teams. In addition to the 32 players already “Rule 5” eligible, the Yankees have a number of other players soon to be eligible, as seen in the chart below. In regard to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Yankees have to urgently decide on 30 prospects, as we’ll get into below.

Of the 30 players that are Rule 5 eligible this December, a handful are recognizable among those who follow the system, and have the potential of getting called up when rosters expand in September.

Spencer Jones

If there’s anyone with household name recognition of the prospects listed, it’s likely Spencer Jones. “The lefty Judge” has been demolishing baseballs (they have a mother, you know) in Triple-A. In Triple-A, he’s on such an insane home run hitting pace, that in a 162-game season, he would hit 110 home runs. I had to check my math a few times, but he has hit 13 homers in 19 games, which works out to .68 HR/game. While his K% is still high (25.8%), it’s the lowest since his very abridged time in Tampa.

Regardless, it feels fair to expect that either the Yankees flip him for a significant name that they can retain for a few years, or he gets protected by getting added to the 40-man around the beginning of December.

Rafael Flores

An undrafted free agent in 2022, the same year that Jones was signed, out of a junior college southeast of LA, Flores broke into pro baseball with a literal bang. While he only spent 4 regular season games in the Florida Complex League (Rookie-level), he slashed .429/.429/.929/1.358 with 6 RBI, then in 3 postseason games where the FCL Yankees won the League Championship, he slashed .545/.583/1.182/1.765 with 3 RBI. The Yankees apparently liked that performance enough that he skipped Low-A Tampa entirely and started 2023 in High-A Hudson Valley.

The Yankees have been playing Flores like a lot of their other catchers in the system (think Ben Rice) in that he also plays 1B in addition to catcher, but he has nearly 5x the time behind the plate compared to at 1B this season. Of the group listed, Flores is the most likely candidate to get traded unless the Yankees trade Escarra, then he may be protected and possibly called up in 2026 (they would likely defer to calling up Jesus Rodriguez first since he’s already on the 40-man).

Chase Hampton

It’s a little difficult to predict what the Yankees may do with Hampton or how they value him considering the injuries he’s dealt with in the past 18 months. Hampton missed significant time last season, only pitching in 18-2/3 innings in 2024, with 13 of those innings on rehab. It was then announced this March that he would have to have season-ending Tommy John surgery, so likely we won’t see him until around April. However, Hampton has still put up decent numbers in his time with the organization, throwing a combined 3.63 ERA, along with a 12.23 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9.

Hampton may be a part of trade discussions, but it’s unclear whether they may or may not protect him.

Jace Avina

Avina was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in November 2023 as part of the trade that sent them Jake Bauers, and he’s done well since he’s been with the Yankees. Nothing particularly stands out about Avina other than he has solid bat-to-ball skills and has a good sense of his speed (which he has plenty of). Avina isn’t much of a power hitter, but in 61 games, he has already matched the amount of homers hit last season (10).

Avina may be a small part of trade discussions because of the consistency he’s provided to the Yankees, but otherwise don’t expect him to go anywhere.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz

Rodriguez-Cruz, or ERC as he’s affectionately called by many on social media, has been an outstanding return in exchange for C Carlos Narváez from the Red Sox. While he’s struggled early after getting promoted to Double-A, Rodriguez-Cruz posted a 2.26 ERA in High-A, along with a 10.65 K/9 and 3.98 BB/9 in 83-2/3 IP. He mostly throws a fastball/sinker combo that sits high-90s and reaches 97 MPH, along with a low-90s change-up and a high-70s 12-6 curveball, and has good command of the zone.

I would expect that if Rodriguez-Cruz is dealt, it’s likely as part of a package (like with Jones) for someone that the Yankees can hang on to for a few years, considering he seems like a sure bet to be a Major Leaguer some day. I would also expect that the Yankees protect him in whichever way possible.

Geoffrey Gilbert

Gilbert threw in only 7 IP last year before landing on the 60-day, then full-season, IL, but he only allowed a hit and two walks in that span. Fast-forward to this year, and while Gilbert doesn’t have that kind of quality, he’s still throwing exceptional, reliable relief innings as a setup man: 2.42 ERA, 13.15 K/9, 4.15 BB/9. In his heyday, Mariano Rivera wasn’t throwing strikes anywhere near that rate. Of note, Gilbert somehow isn’t on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 (he would be on my Top 30), so it’s unclear how the Yankees value him.

I would imagine, though, considering he was used in a relief inning this past February during Spring Training, that he’s valued at least somewhat high. At the same time, most prospects can be moved for the right price/player, and I suspect that’s the case here.

Allen Facundo

Facundo is only just returning from a lengthy Tommy John recovery and rehab, but given the numbers he’s put up in the few outings since being back, it’s likely that he’s on someone’s radar. In his most recent outing in Dunedin, Facundo was averaging mid-90s on his heater, with velos nearly reaching triple digits (99.7), something new for him. He also threw a mid-80s slider, which I recall moving like a Wiffle Ball, along with one change-up which was thrown at 90 MPH.

Like Gilbert, I’m unsure how the Yankees value Facundo, as like Gilbert, he’s missed the last year so he’ll need some time to get re-ranked in the system. I suspect he stays put until at least next season, where he’ll be moved up and exposed to scouts in the Northeast.

Below you can find all (or most at least) players that are Rule 5 eligible, along with those having eligibility nearing, in PDF form. Data is courtesy Fangraphs.

Yankees-2025-Rule-5-eligibility-Rule-5-Eligibility Download

The Rule 5 draft is always an exciting and nerve-wracking time for anyone who follows a team’s farm system, and this year is no different.

On November 19th, the Yankees protected two players, adding utility player Jesus Rodriguez and infielder Caleb Durbin to their 40-man roster.

Durbin had recently played in the Arizona Fall League on the Salt River Rafters with a few other Yankee prospects, but he stood out the most, being named the Breakout Player of the Year. In 24 games in the desert, Durbin batted a slash of .312/.424/.548, while stealing 29 bases in that span, good for the AFL stolen base record. He played in the AFL last year, but was unable to clinch the record due to injury, and said in an interview that that breaking the record was his goal last year. It should be noted that when it was last set in 1994 by the Phillies’ Rick Holifield, the AFL season was 50 games compared to the current 30 games played.

Durbin suffered a wrist injury after he fouled off a ball off of home plate, sidelining him for two months, but still played in 90 games in 2024, mostly for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Durbin batted .275/.388/.451 in the regular season with 60 RBI, 25 doubles, 2 triples, 10 homers and 53 walks. He also stole 31 of 35 bases successfully (88.6%), ranking fifth among other Yankee prospects in steals.

During a Zoom call with reporters in November, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said, “I think he’s a stud, frankly. Great bat-to-ball, elite ability on the bases as a base stealer, good defender in the middle of the diamond at second base. Really competitive, a hard-nosed, tough player. I’m excited about him and I think he’s going to play a big role for us this upcoming season.”

While it’s not mentioned much given the Yankees’ need for a second baseman with Gleyber Torres now as a free agent, Durbin spent some time in the outfield where they could take some advantage of his speed. Durbin spent 8 games in left field and one game in center field; he recorded a 1.000 field percentage. The Yankees likely won’t use him in this role, especially with Oswaldo Cabrera on the bench, but it’s still interesting to see that they’ve been trying him out in various roles, similar to this next prospect.

Jesus Rodriguez has been one of the sleeper prospects, in a way, given he’s been on the same team as other names like Spencer Jones, Rafael Flores, Chase Hampton and Brock Selvidge, to name a few. Rodriguez spent the majority of the 2024 season in High-A Hudson Valley (56 games) where he hit a slash of .332/.412/.507/.919 before getting promoted to Double-A Somerset in mid-June. Rodriguez, a Venezuela native, hit .226/.278/.417/.695 in 23 games with Somerset. Despite a solid slash (combined .302 batting average and .856 OPS), he’s hit around 10 home runs per season the last two years. Rodriguez missed about 6 weeks of the second half of the season, and will likely start back in Somerset in 2025 unless Yankees brass see something in Spring Training that makes him stand out from the nearly half dozen other catchers.

What may make him stand out is that despite being a natural catcher, he played nearly the entire field in 2024, except for shortstop, center field, right field and pitcher. He did, however, spend most of the season behind the plate, a total of 272-⅓ innings (35 games), nabbing 21 of 103 runners (20.4%)

All this said, the Yankees have 33 other prospects that are Rule 5 eligible, and have the potential to be poached by other teams in a few weeks.

Via MLB, “Any player eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and not added to his organization’s roster by 6 p.m. ET [on 11/19] will be available to be selected by another organization. The Draft will take place at the Winter Meetings in Dallas on Wednesday, Dec. 11 [at 2 p.m. ET].

Players first signed at age 18 or younger must be added to 40-man rosters within five seasons or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years or older have to be protected within four seasons. Clubs pay $100,000 to select a player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. If that player doesn’t stay on the 26-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $50,000.

For this year, that means an international prospect or high school draft pick signed in 2020 at age 18 or younger had to be protected. A college player — or 19-year-old high school player — taken in the 2021 Draft was in the same position.”

In addition to the Major League phase, the Rule 5 draft also has a minor league phase. This phase is less publicized, but still offers opportunities for player movement.

Eligibility: Players eligible for the minor league phase are those who are not on their organization’s Triple-A reserve list. This typically includes players in lower levels of the minor leagues.
Selection Process: The selection order in the minor league phase is the reverse order of the previous year’s standings. Teams can select players from other organizations’ minor league rosters.
Roster Requirements: Unlike the Major League phase, there is no requirement to keep selected players on the active roster. They can be assigned to any level of the minor leagues within the selecting organization.
Compensation: A smaller fee is paid to the original team for players selected in the minor league phase compared to the Major League phase.

Impact on Minor League Players:

Opportunity for Advancement: The minor league phase provides a chance for players in lower levels of the minors to be seen by other organizations and potentially move up to a higher level.
Organizational Change: For some players, it can be a fresh start with a new organization that may offer different development paths or playing opportunities.
Less Pressure: Unlike the Major League phase, there isn’t the immediate pressure to perform at the highest level, allowing for more development time.

Most recently, right-handed pitching prospect Gabriel Barbosa was selected away from the Colorado Rockies in the first round of the Minor League phase, with right-handed pitching prospect Kervin Castro selected away from the Houston Astros in the second round. Castro missed all of 2024, while Barbosa spent the entire season in Single-A Tampa (5.09 ERA, 120-⅓ IP, 128 K, 1.30 WHIP). By comparison, the Yankees lost 4 prospects: INF Eric Wagaman (LAA, DFA on 11/19), C Mickey Gasper (BOS), RHP Michael Gomez (TB), and INF Marcos Cabrera (PIT).

The Yankees also lost three pitchers, RHP Mitch Spence to the A’s and RHP Matt Sauer to the Royals. Sauer was returned to the Yankees in May, and declared free agency in early November. RHRP Carson Coleman was selected by Texas, but missed all of 2024 as a result of a right shoulder surgery, and was returned to the Yankees on November 19.

Tag: Rule 5 Draft

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